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Regression Analysis

Regression analysis is a way of measuring the relationship between two or more sets of data. An economist might want to know how the supply of wheat affects wheat prices, or the relationship among gold, inflation, and the value of the U.S. dollar. A hedger or arbitrageur could use the relationship between two related products. such as palm oil and soybean oil, to select the cheaper product or to profit from the difference. or you can find the pattern that binds the Producer Price Index to interest rates. Regression analysis involves statistical measurements that determine the type of relationship that exists between the data studied. Many of the concepts are important in technical analysis and should be understood by all technicians, even if they are not used frequently.
Regression analysis is often applied separately to the basic components of a time series, that is, the trend, seasonal (or secular trend), and cyclic elements- These three factors are present in all price data. The part of the data that cannot be explained by these three elements is considered random, or unaccountable.
Trends are the basis of many trading systems. Long-term trends can be related to economic factors, such as inflation or shifts in the value of the U.S. dollar due to the balance of trade or changing interest rates. The reasons for the existence of short-term trends are not always clear. A sharp decline in oil supply would quickly send prices soaring, and a Soviet wheat embargo would force grain prices into a decline; however, trends that exist over periods of a few days cannot always be related to economic factors but may be strictly behavioral.
Major fluctuations about the long-term trend are attributed to cycles. Both business and industrial cycles respond slowly to changes in supply and demand. The decision to close a factory or shift to a new crop cannot be made immediately, nor can the decision be easily changed once it is made. Stimulating economic growth by lowering interest rates is not a cure that works overnight. Opening a new mine, finding crude oil deposits. or building an additional soybean processing plant makes the response to increased demand slower than the act of cutting back on production. Moreover, once the investment has been made. business is not inclined to stop production, even at returns below production costs.
The random element of price movement is a composite of everything unexplainable. In later sections ARIMA, or Box-Jenkins methods, will be used to find shorter trends and cycles that may exist in these leftover data.

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Foreign exchanges part 5

None other than James Tobin (who died in 2002) recommended in 2001 that banks be taxed not on each distinct operation, but rather over a week to allow for these market adjustments. That would have left 80 percent of the transactions outside the Tobin Tax. For a number of years, advocates of the latter led many people to believe that it was normal for speculators to have their speculative gains subjected to taxation. Nobody ever stated that this was a tax not on gains but on movement. Nobody ever openly recognized that speculative gains were in fact taxed in most countries in any case.
Such issues give rise to strong feelings. An article in French daily Le Monde on October 23, 2001 commented:
According to the organizers, from the 19th through the 21st of October there were 4,000 people assembled in the classrooms and amphitheaters of Berlin Tech. The police were not present and provided no figures. It is nonetheless clear that participants at the founding congress of the German branch of the Attac protest movement were quite numerous. Of French origin, the ‘‘Association for the taxation of financial transactions and for aid to citizens’’ is growing rapidly in Europe, publicizing the acronym and concerns that made it famous … Less abrupt in their formulations but just as categorical, others denounced the war, asserting that the tragic events in New York and Washington corroborated their theories according to which it was the world market that fed the flames of terrorism. Each speaker denied being anti-American and proclaimed his horror of terrorism, but the long and unremitting reminders of the interventions of the US Army in many areas these past 50 years limited the scope of the affirmation and at the same time clearly assessed responsibilities: the United States and the wholesale globalization imposed by America bear exclusive responsibility for what happened there.
The ATTAC (Action for a Tobin Tax for the Assistance of Citizens) was created in France in 1998 by Le Monde Diplomatique, a subsidiary of the French newspaper. It would seem that the chickens had come home to roost. Once again, people were hoodwinked by a dollop of intellectual terrorism. Once again, people succumbed to the temptation to subscribe to simplistic recipes at a time when problem resolution is highly complex, necessitates a great deal of time and presupposes basic minimal humility.

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